IHSG sepanjang hari Kamis ini dilanda profit taking, sehingga IHSG ditutup pada level 2560.034, turun 21.306 poin (-0.83%), dengan value 2.590 Trilyun, diamana Asing Net buy sebesar 173 Milyard.
Asing banyak melakukan akumulasi pada saham-saham Astra group terutama ASII dan UNTR, namun Asing melakukan Net sell pada saham batu bara.
Ada 2 alasan mengapa Saham Batu bara kena profit taking :
1. Harganya minyak dunia condong untuk turun.
2. Pemerintah mengeluarkan PP No 22/2010 dan PP No. 23/2010, sehingga Asing relatif untuk mempelajari lebih dalam tentang Peraturan Pemerintah tsb.
Menurut riset yang dikeluarkan oleh JP. Morgan, bahwa dengan keluarnya PP tersebut maka ada perusahaan yang diuntungkan dan dirugikan.
Adapun yang mendapat keuntungan adalah : INCO, BUMI, ADRO, ITMG.
Sedangkan yang dirugikan adalah : PTBA, ANTM,BYAN.
Berikut ini cuplikan Riset yang saya kutip dari Riset JP.Morgan tertanggal 18 Pebuary 2010 :
On 1 February 2010, the Indonesian government released two supporting
regulations—PP No. 22/2010, and 23/2010. PP No. 22 deals with the
regulation of mining areas, and PP No. 23 deals with the regulation of mining
licenses to support the new mining law: UU No 4/2009. The following are the
key points:
Clarity for the sector – positive: The supporting regulations should be
positive for Indonesia’s mining sector, as we believe they lend further
clarity to the sector. The original concerns of Contract of Works (COW)
holders with regard to continuity or alteration of their COW contracts and
Domestic Obligation (DMO) selling price are removed by these two
implementing regulations.
Contract of Works (COW) honored: According to the new supporting
regulations, the existing COW signed before these laws will be valid until
the expiration of the contract. The only addition is that COW will need to
comply with DMO. Hence, we believe foreign investors’ concerns about
alteration or conflict of interpretation with regard to the COW contracts
will be addressed.
DMO price at the international price; value-added products: All
holders of operation and production licenses must prioritize the need of the
domestic market, in which the volume of DMO will be set by the Minister
of Mining, according to the new regulations. However, the selling price for
DMO will either be market-driven or in accordance with the international
price. With the selling price tracking the international price, DMO should
have little effect on profitability. In addition, all license holders must add
value to the minerals and ores, either directly or indirectly, according to
the new regulations.
COW holders will likely benefit, but KP holders could be negatively
affected: We believe the biggest potential beneficiaries of the new
regulations are COW holders (INCO, BUMI, ADRO, ITMG), as most of
the original terms of their COWs are likely to be honored. However, the
holders of non-COW licenses (e.g. KP, IPR), such as PTBA, ANTM,
BYAN and Straits Asia, will be negatively affected in terms of: (1) higher
uncertainty and potential reduction in the concession area; (2) additional
expenses to convert the KP licenses into IUP in three months; and (3)
stoppage of ore exports by FY14.
Seperti yang telah saya sampaikan, bahwa IHSG memasuki masa volatile yang tinggi, oleh karena itu sebaiknya kita melakukan fast trading, daripada buy and hold.
Faktor positif : Asing masih net buy dan rupiah masih menguat terhadap dollar.
Faktor negatif : Market sulit ditebak dan cenderung anomali, transaksi relatif kecil.
IHSG :
Saat ini IHSG jelas sekali dalam range 2439-2592, terkecuali
IHSG sanggup tembus 2592, maka IHSG akan kembali ke box atas kembali.
MA-5 Mendekati MA-20.
MACD golden Cross, Close masih diatas MA5 dan MA20
Sayang trader keburu profit aking.
S : 2532, R : 2592
BUMI :
Ternyata BUMI menutup gap dibawah dahulu 2375-2325.
Belum berhasil keluar dari garis trend down.
Close diatas MA5 namun dibawah MA20.
S : 2275... 2225. R : 2375... 2425
BBCA :
Berhasil tutup diatas MA5 dan MA20.
MA5 semakin mendekati MA20.
MACD golden cross.
BBCA harus mampu bertahan diatas 4725 bila ingin berada posisi dalam darvas box atas.
S : 4725, R-1 : 4875, R-2 : 4950.
UNTR :
Saham ini banyak dibeli asing, namun sayang trader lokal banyak profit taking
MA-5golden cross MA20.
MACD histogram masuk area positif.
Parabolic sar bullish. Volume 5 hari terakhir meningkat significant.
S : 16.500, R : 17.350
Berikut tabel support dan resistent :
