Hidup adalah Anugrah... syukuri yang telah ada... (The Masiv).
IHSG ditutup pada level 3117.720, naik 12.720 points (+0.40%), dengan value 4.3 Trilyun dimana Asing Net Sell sebesar 69.9 Milyard.
Saham-saham top value yang naik :
BUMI.GJTL.BRAU.ENRG.BBNI.UNVR.KLBF.ITMG.INTP.GGRM.RALS.CPIN.ELTY.BBCA.JPFA.UNSP.SMCB
Saham-saham top value yang turun :
TLKM.UNTR.PGAS.SMGR.BBRI.TINS.GREN.BBTN.PTBA.TRAM.BMRI.GOLD.BLTA.ASRI.MYOR.AALI.BDMN
Dow : 10,213.62 turun -57.59 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq : 2,179.76 naik +0.81 (+0.04%)
Nikel : 20650(bid)/ 20850(offer) turun -350 USD
Timah : 21505(bid)/ 21605(offer) turun -240 USD
CPO : RM2544 ▼51 ▼-1.97% US $809
Sektor yang naik/turun :
Saham yang Asing Net buy :
UNSP, BRAU, BBNI, WIKA, INDF, ASRI, PNLF, LPKR, INCO, CTRA, GJTL, CPIN, RALS, MASA, SMCB, INKP, SMRA, ASII, AKRA, JPFA, INTP.BBCA, ITMG.
Saham yang Asing Net sell :
DEWA, ENRG, ELTY, BUMI, BLTA, DOID, BMRI, IPOL, BWPT, BBTN, PGAS, SMGR, TLKM, MAPI, UNTR, KLBF, BBRI, MIRA, BRPT, ISAT, BSDE, BJBR, MYOR, PNBN, MNCN, ADRO, UNVR, SOBI, AALI.
Berikut tabel entry, Stop loss, dan target harga :
Berikut berita tentang BUMI dikutip dari Deutsche Bank :
DB Alert on BUMI - Implication of Newmont Indonesia's IPO plan ( DISCLAIMER ON )
As reported in WSJ, Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) plans to seek approval for the IPO of up to 10% of new shrs to raise US$800mn (implies US$8bn equity valuation) in a 19Aug EGM. NNT's current shareholders inc. Newmont&Sumitomo (56%); Pukuafu (20%); the Bumi/regional govt JV (24%). A domestic listing could substitute for the 7% foreign stake selldown initially required this year.
Implications for Bumi - Risk to BRM IPO & consolidation plan:
1. We believe that the NNT IPO could undermine Bumi's plan to IPO its noncoal assets under Bumi Resources Minerals (BRM), as the NNT stake is BRM's single largest & only operating asset. Via a listed NNT, investors can get direct access to the asset, instead of having to face potential governance risk at BRM. Also, the main cashflow from NNT to BRM is thru dividend. Via a listed NNT, minority investors get 'un-cut' version of dividend straight from NNT, rather than thru BRM-Bumi-then to minority, likely subjected to payout ratio & additional tax.
2. We think Bumi took a strategic view on NNT in being able to ultimately obtain a controlling take, eg, via the selldowns. The NNT IPO could thwart BRM's consolidation plan, essentially rendering its 24% stake as nothing more than an associate investment & BRM unable to leverage on NNT.
But riding on the NNT listing could help Bumi deleverage, or would it? The only risk to our thesis above is if Bumi decides to sell its NNT stake via the mkt post the NNT IPO, at double the cost. Bumi's diluted NNT stake may be worth US$1.7bn @the above price & implies a US$840mn gain above its US$885mn purchase cost. We believe that this could be positive.
if Bumi uses the money to deleverage (esp. given the hefty US$450mn debtrepmts due this year). The question is would the company necessarily deleverage, given large capex plans on its non-coal reenfield deposits & acquisition appetite.
Cherie Khoeng
PT Deutsche Bank Verdhana Indonesia
Research Analyst
Why BUMI share down? This is the fact (source UBS):
In summary, BUMI has USD 965 m of debt maturing in the nine months following March
2010. CB puts, amounting to USD 129 m and USD 302 m respectively and maturing in October and November 2010, are the most critical. August and September are also key months, as it is important for BUMI to show some traction on assets sales (and indeed, turning receivables related to past asset sales into cash) and the long-touted non-preemptive rights issue.
The newsflow on BUMI has been relentlessly negative in recent months
The list of negatives is long: Tax investigations, fraud investigations, funds missing from the bank accounts of other group companies, the IPO of the non-coal assets blocked by Bapepam, rumours of weather-related production shortfalls, continuous delays to asset sales and confirmation that CIC is unlikely to participate in the long-touted non-preemptive rights issue.
There are fresh rumours (perhaps contributing to Monday’s sharp fall) that BUMI will be downgraded in the upcoming August MSCI reweighting. This didn’t happen overnight, but might happen in the next review in 3 months.
Moreover, the fact that shipments are going through this week at a Newcastle price of $85/tonne (down from $100+ a few short weeks ago) means that it’s squeaky bum time for the number crunchers at BUMI.
Tip trading buat Senin, tanggal 23 Agustus 2010.
1. IHSG akhirnya break out setelah membentuk pola ascending triangle.
2. Sekalipun DOW ditutup merah, namun IHSG berhasil tampil anomaly, akankah Hari Senin ini juga IHSG melanjutkan kenaikannya?
3. Banyak saham-saham yang membentuk all time new high kembali, diantaranya adalah GGRM, INTP, ITMG, CPIN, GJTL, BBNI, AMFG, MAPI, dlsb, disamping juga didorong oleh saham B-7 yang berhasil rebound.
4. Apakah IHSG sudah ada tanda-tanda membahayakan? So far Rupiah masih kuat terhadap USD, Asing masih belum agresif jual, dan IHSG bisa bertahan diatas 3050 bahkan diatas 3080, maka belum ada tanda-tanda yang membahayakan buat IHSG.
5. Saham banking diwakili oleh BBNI, saham batu bara diwakili oleh ITMG, dan Consumer diwakili oleh GGRM, masih menunjukan potensi IHSG akan menguat, namun masih harus waspada terhadap saham-saham B-7.
6. Buat yang beli di harga bawah masih santai-santai saja, let the profit run, sedangkan yang beli diharga atas, tentunya harus pasang trailing stop yang lebih ketat, karena arah market tidak dapat diprediksi 100% secara benar, karena bisa saja tiba-tiba factor politik ataupun factor ekonomi baik Nasional ataupun Level International tiba-tiba memburuk.
Have a amazing and safety trading….
IHSG :
Akhirnya berhasil break out dari pola ascending triangle.
MA5 semakin menjauhi MA20.
Namun bisa juga koreksi sehat terlebih dahulu,
mengingat close berajuhan dengan MA5.
Close>MA5>MA20>MA50>MA200 --> Perfect bullish.
Target berikutnya IHSG adalah 3250.
S : 3080... 3053... R : 3121... 3142.
CPIN :
Stochastic up trend.
MACD golden cross, hostogram akan masuk area positif.
MA5 semakin menjauhi MA20 kembali.
Strong up trend.
S : 5350... 5150. R : 5750... 6000.
JPFA :
Saham ini sejenis dengan CPIN.
Oleh karena itu gerakannya juga mengikuti CPIN.
MA5 menjauhi MA20 kembali.
Tembus 2675, maka akan break new high kembali.
Support kuat saat ini berada di level 2375.
S : 2425... 2375, R : 2600... 2675.
GJTL :
Saham ini juga strong up trend.
Paling bagus bertahan diatas level 1700.
Jarak MA5 dengan MA20 sangat berjauhan.
S : 1700... 1650, R : 1780... 1800.
Target sementara : 1880
GGRM :
Kembali break all time new high.
berhasil tutup dilevel 40.000an.
Stochastic masih belum jenuh beli.
MACD golden cross dengn horstogram tinggi di area positif.
MA5 semakin jauh dari MA20.
S : 39.000 ... 38100, R : 40.600... 41.000
MYOR :
Kemarin belum mampu break new high di level 8550.
MA5 sudah golden cross MA20.
MACD golden cross, histogram masuk area positif.
S : 8300.... 8100, Pivot : 8550, R : 8850... 8900.
INKP :
Setelah 4 hari naik dengan tinggi,
akhirnya 2 hari ini terjadi koreksi, tetapi masih katagori koreksi sehat.
Bila harga masih diatas 2000, berarti masih diatas MA5,
MA20 cross up MA50.
Resist INKP saat ini adalah 2175, baru bisa melanjutkan kenaikan lagi.
S : 2000... Pivot 2075, R : 2175.
INTP :
3 Hari ini luar biasa, kenaikan dari 16.100 sampai ke 18.600.
Sekaligus break all time new high.
Hati-hati biasanya mesti koreksi dahulu.
Jangan turun sampai dibawah 17.000.
Full candle out off bolinger band.
S : 17.700... 17.050. R : 18.700... 19000.
ITMG :
Akhirnya break out dan break all time new high.
Setelah berhasil melewati resist di 39.000.
Sesuai dengan target semual ITMG berpeluang menuju 41.000.
Stochastic memasuki area jenuh beli.
S : 39.250... 39000. R : 41000... 41.250.
BUMI :
Stochastic golden cross di area jenuh jual.
BUMI harus mampu tembus 1570 baru akan aman kembali.
MA5 masih berada jauh dibawah MA20 berarti strong down trend.
3 hari berturun-turut out of lower bolinger band, akhirnya masuk kembali.
Mudah-mudah bila bermain diatas 1570 kembali lagi dalam range 1570-1920 kembali.
S : 1460... 1400, R : 1570... 1620.
Berikut tabel support dan resistent :
