IHSG ditutup pada level 3578.954, turun 13.834 points (-0.39%), dengan total transaksi sebesar 6.4 Trilyun, dimana Asing net sell sebesar 21.2 Milyard.
Dow : 11,107.97 +129.35 +1.18%
Nasdaq : 2,457.39 +20.44 +0.84%
Oil : 81.85 +2.36 +2.97%
Nikel : 23925(bid)/ 24025(offer), naik +500 USD
Timah :26750(bid)/ 26850(offer), naik +900 USD
CPO : RM2984 ▲65 ▲2.23%US $956
Berikut data market detailnya :
Asing Net buy :
Asing Net sell :
Tip trading hari ini, Rabu tanggal 21 Oktober 2010 :
1. Kemarin market terkejut oleh adanya tindakan Pemerintah China yang menaikan suku bunga deposito dan pinjaman sebesar 0.25 basic point, namun beberapa riset mengatakan bahwa itu hanya berdampak beberapa hari saja, dan kenaikan bunga tersebut sangat kecil, sedangkan fundamental ekonomi Indonesia sangat kuat (Beberapa riset ada saya kirimkan via milis anggun traders).
2. Dow kembali naik, demikian juga eropa dan regional Asia tidak begitu turun drastic.
3. Kalau kita lihat kemarin Asing agresif melakukan aksi jual cukup besar terutama pada sector banking, hal mana mungkin mereka sedang meng’analisa juga sejauh mana pengaruh kenaikan suku bunga China tsb terhadap Ekonomi Indonesia.
4. Asing tercapat melakukan net sell sebesar 21 milyard, harus ditambah dengan crossing saham elty sebesar 453 milyard, sehingga net sell asing kemarin adalah sebesar hamper ½ trilyun.
5. Kemarin market sangat sepi, Bandar juga sulit keluar barang, karena volume bid yang tipis, sehingga akahirnya saham B-7’lah yang dibuat semerbak, dan para trader bersorak ria mengikuti irama gerakan saham B-7, namun mesti hati-hati dengan gerakan saham B-7 ini, karena kenaikan yang sangat cepat dan arah yang tidak jelas..
6. Coba kita lihat saham SDRA, betapa dahsyatnya harga naik dan turun dalam beberapa menit, bukankah uang kita seperti dipertaruhakn diatas meja rollet? Tentu saja lebih tenang kalau kita simpan di saham BLTA atau LPKR kemarin daripada di SDRA.
7. Saat ini Emiten banyak sekali yang akan mengadakan IPO, Right Isue, ataupun Placement. Mengenai Right issue pernah saya bahas dalam blog ini, untuk IPO beli dan jual ketika hari pertama hanya naik 5-10% saja, kecuali apabila saham tersebut mampu naik diatas 20% boleh hold dulu.
8. Untuk Placement, setiap saham yang placement, sehari setelahnya pasti turun besar mendekati harga yang dijual pada level placement, namun seminggu kemduian harga tersebut akan normal kembali. Contohnya BBCA, ITMG, LPKR, dlsb, semuanya membuat profit yang sangat besar, dengan logika, missal saham LPKR, masa orang berani membeli placement di harga 550 dengan banyak, namun kita retail (trader kecil) tidak berani ?
9. So apakah hal ini akan terjadi pada saham ELTY ?, mari kita lihat perkembangannya. Jujur saja setiap saham yang melakukan placement, saya langsung membelinya, termasuk BBCA, ITMG dan LPKR. Namun untuk saham ELTY ? saya masih piker-pikir dulu deh.
10. Harga MInyak kembali tembus mendekati level 82, Harga timah, Nikel, CPO kembali rebound, Dow juga rebound, kalau IHSG tidak rebound atau anomali, apa kata dunia? He3…
11. Saham yang diperhatikan adalah sector CPO, Mining, B-7, dan property (terutama LPKR) termasuk juga B-7.
12. Perhatikan asing masih agresif tidak melakukan net sell, dan perhatikan juga di saham apa yang asing agresif, oleh karena itu sementara hindari dulu saham-saham itu.
13. Bila Asing kembali bali arah dan net buy, maka IHSG malah akan menciptakan break all time new high kembali, karena posisi IHSG ada di area over sold saat ini.
14. Computer saya hari ini benar-benar ngamuk alias tidak bisa nyala, terpaksa saya pakai computer anak saya, sehingga mohon maaf kalau saya tidak bisa menampilkan table support dan resisten,
Happy trading dan Enjoy the market.
Bagi yang belum masuk angguntrader milist group, saya anjurkan sekali, karena banyak berita bagus dari riset-riset yang saya sortir dan 90% dari sekuritas asing.
Berikut saya lampirkan artikel tentang kenaikan suku bunga China, bagi pembaca yang belum masuk millist group, atau belum sempat buka emailnya :
Berikut artikel dari JP-Morgan :
China Strategy
Equity implications of the first interest rate increase
since Dec07
PBoC raised interest rates by 25bp: Both the benchmark one-year
lending and deposit rates will be raised by 25bp to 5.56% and 2.50%,
respectively, starting October 20, marking the first interest rate rise since
December 2007. While today’s announcement is largely in line with our
economists’ forecast of a 27bp rate increase in 4Q this year, this could
be treated as a surprise to the market as the consensus has tilted towards
the prospect of no rate rise before the end of this year, especially
following the Governor of PBoC, Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan’s recent
reiteration of no interest rise in China for the rest of the year.
The rate increase is a positive signal for China’s equity market
performance: We agree with our economics team that today’s rate rise
is more of a symbolic move by the central bank to correct the negative
real deposit rate in China and thus manage inflation expectations, rather
than a signal by the Chinese policymakers to switch to a tightening
monetary policy. Notably, we take the view that the earlier-thanexpected
rate rise suggests that top authorities have probably seen
more hard evidence of an underlying economic recovery in China,
which supports our view that China’s economic growth has
bottomed out and is set for strong recovery from here. As such, the
rate rise could actually represent a positive signal for China’s equity
market performance. We maintain our view that China equities have
bottomed out, and offer good upside from here, because: (1) economic
growth appears to have bottomed out, with China’s real GDP growth, on
a sequential basis, likely having bottomed out at 7.2% Q/Q in 2Q10; (2)
the liquidity situation is improving, with the latest September M2 figure
showing the sequential trend rising further at 16.8%3m/3m saar after
bottoming out at 13.5% in July; and (3) the consensus earnings forecast
for MSCI China has reversed the downward trend, with FY10 and FY11
consensus earnings estimates for MSCI China revised up by 0.9% and
3.2%, respectively, in September.
We recommend that clients buy stocks in sectors that stand to
benefit from China’s most sticky growth trends, in the next Five-
Year Plan: (1) consumer; (2) banks; (3) insurance; (4) China
commodities, such as cement, demand for which is mainly driven by
China’s local demand rather than by global demand; (5) service
industries, such as education, IT outsourcing, and healthcare; (6)
economic housing beneficiaries, such as BBMG; (7) heavy machinery,
such as coal mining machinery; (8) nuclear power equipment, natural
gas, and water treatment; (9) telecom equipment; (10) Hong Kong
Exchanges & Clearing and selected brokers, which could benefit from
Rmb liberalization reform. We maintain our negative view on exporters,
ports, toll roads, telcos, and utilities.
Berikut Pandangan CLSA : Tentang kanaikan suku bunga deposit/pinjaman di China :
It was only beginning of the week we were talking about how everyone turned bearish on the dollar and risk of a possible sharp reversal of the dollar debasement trade. Well, seems like it is beginning to play out just after two days. The trigger was China's surprise move to raise lending and deposit rates by 25bps. Sure this sets a perfect excuse to take some profit after huge runs in emerging markets but it does not change the fundmental picture. More money printing, more inflation.
Our China guru Andy Rothman forecasted a small 2H10 rate hike earlier this year. Then, in september, after every chinese official and economist he met said they were all too worried about the health of the US and EU economies to raise rates this year. Thus, he pushed his forecast rate hike back to next year.
So what happened to change beijing's mind, and raise both lending and deposit rates by 25 bps? Rothman notes the following;
"The didn't tell us why they raised rates. It is probably not a response to inflation, as cpi is driven primarily by veggie prices, which aren't terribly interest rate sensitive. And with 10pct nominal wage growth, cpi of about 3.5 pct isn't unhealthy. The central bank was probably also not responding to the long-running condition of depositors earning negative real rates, as household deposits are up 17pct this year and an extra 25bps will still leave one-year rates, at 2.5pct, significantly negative.
More likely, the government is moving in advance of thursday's release of 3Q macro data, which is probably very strong.
There will be very little concrete economic impact from tonite's move. This is not an interest-rate sensitive economy, lending is controlled by quota, and the cost of capital is still, even with this increase, grossly underpriced (the one-year loan benchmark is now 5.56pct). This will also have no impact on the exchange rate, which (like interest rates) is set by the Party. And it is positive that they have begun raising the cost of capital, which will, over a very long time, raise the quality of investment."
We believe the A-share market will have some near term negative impact as this sideline money may need to digest the unexpected rate hikes. The fact that real interest rate remain negative and 17% deposit hike this year, liquidity is still abundant. Rate hike also attracts more fund inflow into China.
As for Indonesia, we still have growth, real positive rates, little debt and rising forex reserves. Cheap money from the west will keeping flowing to this side of the world. Continue to overweight asset reflation plays.
Berikut tabel entry, stop dan target harga (Disclaimer ON) :
BUMI : BUMI di tutup menguat 2.1% di 2400
berpeluang break resist 2425nya--
apabila break maka target berikutnya ada di 2525 dan 2600
stochastic mencoba golden cross, macd sideways
support 2300.. 2200
Resist 2475.. 2575
BLTA : BLTA di tutup menguat 3,9% di 400
mampukah BLTA break resist kuat dan fibo 38.2% di 410 ?
apabila break 410, maka berpeluang menuju ma 200 dan fibo 50% di 465-470
stochastic mulai memasuki area overbought, macd masih uptrend
support 385... 370
Resist 410.. 430
UNSP : UNSP ditutup menguat 14.9% di 425
breakout di sertai volume yg besar.
Stochastic muncul sinyal beli, MACD masih uptrend
Target upper box berikutnya di 460, kemudian di harga right issuenya di 525/520
Support 400.. 380
Resist.. 435... 460.. 495
MYOR : MYOR di tutup menguat 9.5% di 10.950
Mampukah break all time highnya di 11.100.
apabila mampu break 11.100, maka target upper box berikutnya di sekitar 12.500
Stochastic golden cross, MACD hampir Golden cross, Volume sangat besar
Support 10.450.. 9950
Resist 11.100.. 11.800
