Pengajuan Pasangan Capres dan Cawapres tinggal 1 hari lagi :

Salam Winner,

IHSG ditutup pada level 5031.571, naik 39.935 points (+0.80%), dengan total value transaksi sebesar 9 trilyuns dimana asing net buy sebesar 2.1 trilyun rupiah (Ada Nega saham MPMX dimana asing net buy sebesar 544 milyards, sehingga pada pasar reguler asing net buy sebesar 1.65 triluns rupiah)


Stocks staged a final-hour comeback to close in positive territory in choppy trading, putting an end to two days of sharp declines, but the Dow and S&P 500 still ended lower for the week.

Dow.........16491 +44.5  +0.27%
Nasdaq......4091 +21.3  +0.52%
S&P 500.....1878 +7.0    +0.31%

FTSE..........6856 +14.9  +0.22%
DAX...........9629  -26.95 -0.28%
CAC...........4456 +11.4  +0.26%

Nikkei......14097  -201.6  -1.41%
HSI..........22713  -17.95  -0.08%
Shanghai...2027 +1.5    +0.08%
Kospi.........2013 +3.2    +0.16%
ST Times...3263  -9.9      -0.30%
ASX 200....5479  -31.8    -0.58%
PSE...........6458  -31.6    -0.46%

Indo10Yr. 8.0976 -0.0718-0.88%
US10Yr.....2.52% +0.02  +0.64%

VIX...........12.44  -0.73  -5.44%

USD Index...80.04 +0.04 +0.05%
Como Indx.305.92  -1.16  -0.38%
DJUSCL......146.20  -1.20  -0.81%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index)

IndoCDS.....153.50+6.1  +4.41%
(5-yr INOCD5)

IDR....11412.5 -34.30-0.299%(blmbrg)
Jisdor...... 11415  -72        -0.63%
Euro........1.3694  -0.0016 -0.17%

TLKM..44.05 +2.32+5.56%Rp2514
ARMS Plc...193.75 +1.00 +0.52%
EIDO......... 29.57  +0.76  +2.64%
EEM.......... 42.94  -0.56  -1.32%

Oil............102.02 +0.52  +0.51%
Gold ......1293.52  -2.93  -0.23%
Timah......23175    -120    -0.51%
Nickel......19020  +440  +2.37%
Coal..........72.75  +0      +0%
CPO.....2592RM -35 -1.37% $803
Corn.........483.50 -0.75  -0.15%
SoybeanOil.40.75 -0.29  -0.71%
Wheat.......674.25-4.00  -0.59%


Berikut Tabel Market Detailnya:

Sektor yang naik/turun:

50 Saham top value yang naik/turun:

Saham-saham Kompas-100 yang naik/turun :

Saham-saham yang asing net buy  :

Saham-saham yang asing net sell  :

Berikut tabel entry, stop dan target harga :
Keterangan :
Warna Hijau : adalah saham-saham yang break out (Buat trader Buy High Sell Higher).
Warna biru : adalah saham-saham yang bullish dan berpeluang untuk break out.
Warna putih : adalah saham-saham yang masih bearish namun berpotensi naik.
Trade Signal : Ini sinyal2 yang dihasilkan pada saat explorasi.
Strenght : Berhubungan dengan kondisi trend. Semakin besar posisinya artinya semakin bullish. (Max 100 minimal -100), Penulis kadang tidak menimbulkan kolom strenght, bila saham pilihannya terlalu banyak, karena Penulis sudah pilihkan dengan saham yang berwarna hijau, biru dan putih.
VChg : adalah perubahan volume terhadap hari sebelumnya, semakin besar perubahan vol ume'nya, berarti semakin bagus.
Chg : adalah perubahan harga close terhadap harga close sebelumnya.:
W/B : White and Black. Ini menghitung body candle. Bila -4 artinya 4 hari berturut-turut candlenya hitam (Close < Open).
G/R : Green / Red. Bila positif artinya Close hari ini lebih tinggi dibanding close sebelumnya (Close>Close-1).
Entry : Bila sinyal buy maka entry ini harga beli,bila sinyal jual entry ini harga jual (Saat ini Penulis hanya menerbitkan yang berisi signal beli saja).
 Confirm price : adalah level harga tsb, maka confirm naik.
Stop : Bila telah membeli, namun harga turun maka ini adalah stoploss
Target : adalah Target harga bila melakukan pembelian / penjualan. Mudah-mudahan tabel ini bermanfaat, namun jangan lupa untuk tetap disiplin.

Tips trading buat hari ini, Senin tanggal 19 Mei 2014 :

1. Batas waktu pengajuan Capres dan Cawapres adalah tanggal 20 Mei 2014, berarti jika hari Senin ini Jokowi belum mengajukan Cawapresnya, maka berarti besok hari Selasa pasti diajukan.
2. Semua mata ditujukan kepada Jokowi dan calon Cawapresnya dan asing masuk begitu gencar masuk dalam bursa BEI ini, apabila sesuai dengan ekspektasi, maka IHSG berpotensi naik hingga 5150-5250
3. Namun sebaliknya jika cawapresnya tidak sesuai dengan ekspektasi, maka siap-siap IHSG akan langsung tumbang, menuju 4700-4600 kembali.
4. Nah semua sentimen ekonomi lainnya baik lokal maupun Internasional masih terabaikan oleh penantian Cawapresnya Jokowi.
5. Kalau pasangan Capres dan Cawapres hanya 2 pasang, berarti Pemilu hanya 1 putaran, sedangkan jika pasangan Capres dan Cawapres ada 3 orang, maka kemungkinan besar akan terjadi 2 putaran.
6. Market masih berpeluang euforia dalam 1 minggu ini tertutama Jokowi sudah memberikan bocoran bahwa Cawapresnya berinitial J atau A, sedangkan Jika ternyata nanti diumumkan Cawapresnya PM, maka siap-siap asing akan keluar market kembali.
7. Saat ini saham yang paling kuat dan diminati asing adalah saham Perbankan (BBRI, BMRI, BBNI), TLKM dan ASII. 
8. Harga nikel lumayan rebound naik +2.37%, namun masih belum menutup penurunan 2 hari berturut-turut kemarin, bisa dimanfaatkan untuk tik tok.
9. EIDO naik +2.64%, masih memberikan signal positif dalam menanti Pengumuman Cawapresnya Jokowi.

Happy trading and always dicipline..


IHSG :

BBNI :

PGAS :

BBTN :

Ini Riset tentang  Prioritas Jokowi  dari Sekuritas Asing CLSA :

Jokowi’s Priorities:

1.    Education & Mental Revolution

Jokowi emphasized character building for the next generation at the elementary level, and therefore the importance of having the right vocational schools and polytechnics.  He wants a workforce that is recognized for its competitive productivity rather than for its cheap labor .

Specifically, Mr. Jokowi wants to overhaul the educational system.  He wants to build competent, honest and competitive individuals.  To do this, he wants schools, especially elementary school to focus on character building (80% character and 20% science/skills).  In middle school, science/skill weighting are increased to 40% and eventually in high school, skill/science weighting goes up to at least 80%.  Rome wasn’t built in a day, but we must start with a strong foundation.

The message mirrored insights shared with us by his Deputy Governor, Ahok.  Jokowi, too, warned that if Indonesia does not reform, we will end up with a demographic disaster instead of reaping what should be demographic dividends by 2025.

2.    Energy Reform (Oil & Gas)

With regards to oil & gas reform, Jokowi highlights that it is about political will.  It is not whether Indonesia can or cannot change, it is more about the willingness to change.  Pak Jokowi emphasized that he would initiate energy reforms by appointing professionals with relevant expertise to key posts in the sector. 

Currently, Indonesia is not attractive or competitive in term of attracting oil and gas investments.  While other countries provide incentives, Indonesia discourages investments in oil and gas.  No wonder our oil production has been steadily in decline.  An overhaul is much needed. 

3.    Infrastructure Reform

Jokowi highlighted the urgency to boost infrastructure.  There has not been any new dams in the last fifteen years and he also mentioned that airports, seaports, toll roads are all very important. 

Specifically went into great length about sea logistics as Indonesia is an archipelagic nation – Jokowi is baffled that it cost more to ship containers from Jakarta to Papua in eastern part of Indonesia rather than from Jakarta to Europe. 

Jokowi further elaborated on ports:  Belawan (North Sumatra), Jakarta, Surabaya (East Java), Makassar (South Sulawesi), and Sorong (Papua) will all be connected and more deep sea ports will be developed.  It does not make sense that a bag of cement is 15x more expensive in a remote location in Papua than in Java.

4.    Agriculture & Marine sector Agriculture and Marine sectors are also areas of focus highlighted by Jokowi.   He highlighted Indonesia’s weak agriculture research and low productivity of farm lands.  He identified no less than 70 dams that can be built across the country to improve productivity in the farming sector. Indonesia is an archipelago and blessed with abundant fishery potentials.  It is ironic that Indonesia is a big importer of fishery products and some of the products come from Indonesian water.  Jokowi wants to change this.  Indonesia, under his Presidency, will be the main producer of fishery products.

How to finance reform initiatives? 1.    Phasing out & Re-allocating Fuel Subsidies Jokowi stressed that he is going to put an end to wasteful fuel subsidies.  This will give his government a US$30bn war chest.   The re-allocation of subsidies will specifically be directed towards agricultural needs (e.g. stabilizing food prices).  It will also be used to build infrastructure in farming and general logistics (roads, ports, airports, etc.).   The freed up moneys from misallocation of resources will not be spread around aimlessly across many departments. Funding will be re-directed to finance aforementioned initiatives in a very well-targeted way.   For clarification of context, Jokowi highlighted that state budgets get divided more or less equally into equal proportions to all governmental departments.  He is very puzzled why this is the case and vowed that there will be more focus and priorities in budget allocation under his administration. 2.    Increased Tax Revenues Case in point, Jakarta.  Since Jokowi became governor, he has increased the capital’s tax revenue from Rp41tn to Rp72tn.  After all spending has been done, there remained a surplus of Rp9tn in Jakarta last year. Extending the tax base through on line system will also be key.  Licenses to build and licenses to operate business will also be made available online. The key word here is to simplify, simplify, and simplify.  “I” for Internet,  I-budgeting, I-procurement, I-license.  In short, everything will be done on the net to ensure transparency and fairness.    3.    Accountability, Prioritization & Private Sector Accountability of budget spending will be key.  Incentives will be provided to civil servants who can deliver on budget spending and penalties will be applicable to those who underspent and cannot meet the agreed targets.  Additionally, budget training programs will be provided for civil servants. If elected as President, Jokowi will also involve the private sector in helping to build infrastructure.      Other key points from the Q&A: Anti-Corruption: Jokowi will focus on war against corruption No Nationalization: There will be NO unilateral nationalization of assets as long as the rule of law is respected by all parties and transparency heeded.     Legal Certainty: All existing contracts will be honored, to safe guard in Indonesia’s legal framework Reciprocity: In dealing with foreign countries, everything will be done in a reciprocal way.  If a country wants A from us, it is only fair that we also receive A, or equal terms of trade in return. National Defense: Increasing military budgets to secure the national borders.  Only after you have a well-respected military power, can you prevent people from stealing our resources.  Manufacturing initiatives:  After meeting foreign investors, Jokowi learned that there is a lot of foreign investment interest.  He would encourage initiatives to train up workers and to provide housing facilities.  If you build it, they will come. Who’s his VP?  With regard to who his VP candidate will be?  Jokowi bounced the question back: “Well, this question always comes up.  Who does the market favor as VP candidate?” Jokowi’s 100-day priority?   Regulations that clearly send the message that his government is pro business and that Indonesia is open for business.  Jokowi declined to elaborate on details and cited that it is a “secret for now”. Technocrats in charge in a Jokowi cabinet?  How realistic is it to have a professional cabinet and no horse trading?   His answer was direct and confident. “It is very realistic. There has been no horse trading right from the start and the coalition is still building up very nicely”. Jokowi’s experience in Solo and Jakarta suggests that despite not having a big coalition to support him, he can get things done.  Coalition partners can suggest names but in the end every name will be evaluated on professional merit. Firm on labor issue.  First year in power, Jokowi raised the min wage by 44% which represented a one-time adjustment.  The business people were furious.  In the second year, unions were pressing for another huge wage increase.  But this time, it was the unions who were disappointed.  Jokowi has always been firm on his decision, regardless of sides. Mineral ore export ban.  Jokowi will stick to the law as passed in 2009.   In his view, infrastructure availability is the leading cause of the hold up in investing in processing facilities.  Several large companies have expressed interest, Rusal, for example, which visited recently. Power plant. The current reliance on diesel fired power has to end.  A Jokowi Government will remove 80-90% of diesel fired power within three years saving US$7b in energy costs per annum.  More electricity is one of the largest hurdles to realizing mineral processing onshore.  Companies like Bukit Asam will be encouraged to construct mine-mouth power plants using coal to support industry.

AGENDA 19 MEI 2014 • RUPS/PUBEX : ABMM, MLIA, PSKT, SQBB, SQBI, FISH, • REMINDER DISTRIBUSI CASH DEV : PGAS, SMGR, TLKM, WSKT, BBNI, MPPA !!!! • CUM DEV ROTI 3.12 • CUM DEV SIDO 27 • CUM DEV TOTL 35

:::» High-Low Tin Price «:::
- 2007: H 17.575, L 10.100
- 2008: H 25.300, L  9.775
- 2009: H 16.950, L  9.875
- 2010: H 27.350, L 15.200
- 2011: H 33.300, L 18.525
- 2012: H 25.500, L 17.345
- 2013: H 25.025, L 18.850
- 2014: H 23.525, L 21.500
:::» High-Low Nickel Price «:::
- 2007: H 51.600, L 25.100
- 2008: H 33.400, L  9.050
- 2009: H 20.605, L  9.455
- 2010: H 27.290, L 17.050
- 2011: H 29.300, L 16.750
- 2012: H 21.800, L 15.250
- 2013: H 18.725, L 13.285
- 2014: H 16.290, L 13.413

:::» High-Low Palm Oil «:::
- 2007: H 3.117, L 1.893
- 2008: H 4.203, L 1.404
- 2009: H 2.887, L 1.722
- 2010: H 3.780, L 2.384
- 2011: H 3.927, L 2.787
- 2012: H 3.568, L 2.027
- 2013: H 2.645, L 2.167
- 2014: H 2.910, L 2.494

:::» High-Low Coal Price «:::
- 2007: H  90.90, L  51.60
- 2008: H 192.50, L  75.25
- 2009: H  86.25, L  60.20
- 2010: H 126.10, L  88.00
- 2011: H 138.50, L 108.95
- 2012: H 118.95, L  78.05
- 2013: H  94.05, L  76.10
- 2014: H  84.25, L  72.90

Dibutuhkan kenaikan berapa tick agar tidak rugi dalam sistem baru ini :

Berikut kami lampirkan kumpulan gambar pola candlestick berikut istilah-istilahnya, semoga bermanfaat :

Perubahan Lot Size dan Fraksi harga yang baru (Berlaku effectif 6 Januari 2014) :