Salam Winner,
IHSG
ditutup pada level 5385.906, naik 13.158 points (+0.24%), dengan total value transaksi pada Market Reguler sebesar 5.2 Trilyuns dimana asing net 277 Milyards Rupiah.Berikut Market detailnya :
Sektor-sektor yang naik/turun :
Saham-saham Kompas-100 yang naik dan turun :
Saham-saham yang asing net BUY :
Saham-saham yang asing NET SELL :
50 Saham top value :
Berikut tabel entry, stop dan target harga :
Keterangan :
Warna Hijau : adalah saham-saham yang break out (Buat trader Buy High Sell Higher).
Warna biru : adalah saham-saham yang bullish dan berpeluang untuk break out.
Warna putih : adalah saham-saham yang masih bearish namun berpotensi naik.
Trade Signal : Ini sinyal2 yang dihasilkan pada saat explorasi.
Strenght : Berhubungan
dengan kondisi trend. Semakin besar posisinya artinya semakin bullish.
(Max 100 minimal -100), Penulis kadang tidak menimbulkan kolom strenght,
bila saham pilihannya terlalu banyak, karena Penulis sudah pilihkan
dengan saham yang berwarna hijau, biru dan putih.
VChg : adalah perubahan volume terhadap hari sebelumnya, semakin besar perubahan volume'nya, berarti makings bagus.
Chg : adalah perubahan harga close terhadap harga close sebelumnya.:
W/B : White and Black. Ini menghitung body candle. Bila -4 artinya 4 hari berturut-turut candlenya hitam (Close < Open).
G/R : Green / Red. Bila positif artinya Close hari ini lebih tinggi dibanding close sebelumnya (Close>Close-1).
Entry : Bila
sinyal buy maka entry ini harga beli,bila sinyal jual entry ini harga
jual (Saat ini Penulis hanya menerbitkan yang berisi signal beli saja).
Confirm price : adalah level harga tsb, maka confirm naik.
Stop : Bila telah membeli, namun harga turun maka ini adalah stoploss
Target : adalah
Target harga bila melakukan pembelian / penjualan. Mudah-mudahan tabel
ini bermanfaat, namun jangan lupa untuk tetap disiplin.
Poultry Sector - Another solid results expected despite the noise
By: CIPTADANA (KI)
POULTRY SECTOR
Another solid results expected despite the noise
Expecting better performance in the FY16
We expect JPFA, CPIN and MAIN to book stronger revenue in 4Q16 on seasonality effect, as it usually booked higher revenue during the Christmas-Year End festive, which boost the overall revenue for the FY16. Additionally, based on latest data (Arboge.com) we see that DOC prices have been increased by 18.8% YoY from Rp3,960.25 in FY15 to Rp4,702.66 in FY16. We also expect to see a bigger number on the bottom line, contributed mostly by higher forex gains as relatively stronger Rupiah benefited its dollar debts in FY16.
Impact from government action to enter poultry industry is limited…
PT Rajawali Nusantara Indonesia (RNI) and PT Berdikari have signed an agreement to take part in the livestock industry, especially in cattle and chicken breeding, as well as the animal feed industry. These SOEs have big mission to develop the business and ensure the availability of protein resources from animals for the people. Despite the above issue, we believe that these SOEs will support the government’s program to boost protein consumption. However, we also believe three big poultry companies (CPIN, JPFA and MAIN) have a strong brand to maintain their market leader position in this field.
What sends CPIN’s, JPFA’s and MAIN’s shares plunging?
Recently, these big poultry companies CPIN, JPFA and MAIN have seen their share price down by 10.49%, 10.82% and 5.30% in the last few days. We don’t see any major news could hurt their share price. Despite the recent noise in the poultry sector such as government interventions (corn import banned and DOC price capping), we do not see any significant risks that would harm the big three players (CPIN, JPFA and MAIN). Besides, the DOC segment only contributes less than 20% of their total revenue. Most of their revenue is mainly dominated by the feed segment, which has shown resilient and stable operating margin performance over time.
Buy JPFA on cheapest valuation
Japfa Comfeed (JPFA) remain our top pick in the poultry sector, as its valuation looks attractive (still the cheapest), trading at PER 17F of 9.35x vs CPIN’s 16.43x and MAIN’s 16.07x.
Overall, we have Buy rating for JPFA with TP of Rp2,500 (+42.4% upside potential), CPIN with TP of Rp4,200 (+28.4% upside potential) and MAIN with TP of Rp1,820 (+47.3% upside potential).
We see several positive catalysts for the sector which could come from higher protein consumption growth, stronger rupiah, and softer raw material prices.
By: CIPTADANA (KI)
POULTRY SECTOR
Another solid results expected despite the noise
Expecting better performance in the FY16
We expect JPFA, CPIN and MAIN to book stronger revenue in 4Q16 on seasonality effect, as it usually booked higher revenue during the Christmas-Year End festive, which boost the overall revenue for the FY16. Additionally, based on latest data (Arboge.com) we see that DOC prices have been increased by 18.8% YoY from Rp3,960.25 in FY15 to Rp4,702.66 in FY16. We also expect to see a bigger number on the bottom line, contributed mostly by higher forex gains as relatively stronger Rupiah benefited its dollar debts in FY16.
Impact from government action to enter poultry industry is limited…
PT Rajawali Nusantara Indonesia (RNI) and PT Berdikari have signed an agreement to take part in the livestock industry, especially in cattle and chicken breeding, as well as the animal feed industry. These SOEs have big mission to develop the business and ensure the availability of protein resources from animals for the people. Despite the above issue, we believe that these SOEs will support the government’s program to boost protein consumption. However, we also believe three big poultry companies (CPIN, JPFA and MAIN) have a strong brand to maintain their market leader position in this field.
What sends CPIN’s, JPFA’s and MAIN’s shares plunging?
Recently, these big poultry companies CPIN, JPFA and MAIN have seen their share price down by 10.49%, 10.82% and 5.30% in the last few days. We don’t see any major news could hurt their share price. Despite the recent noise in the poultry sector such as government interventions (corn import banned and DOC price capping), we do not see any significant risks that would harm the big three players (CPIN, JPFA and MAIN). Besides, the DOC segment only contributes less than 20% of their total revenue. Most of their revenue is mainly dominated by the feed segment, which has shown resilient and stable operating margin performance over time.
Buy JPFA on cheapest valuation
Japfa Comfeed (JPFA) remain our top pick in the poultry sector, as its valuation looks attractive (still the cheapest), trading at PER 17F of 9.35x vs CPIN’s 16.43x and MAIN’s 16.07x.
Overall, we have Buy rating for JPFA with TP of Rp2,500 (+42.4% upside potential), CPIN with TP of Rp4,200 (+28.4% upside potential) and MAIN with TP of Rp1,820 (+47.3% upside potential).
We see several positive catalysts for the sector which could come from higher protein consumption growth, stronger rupiah, and softer raw material prices.
Rekap Laba (-Rugi) Bersih Emiten FY16 vs FY15
• SMGR Rp4.52t vs Rp4.52t
• WIKA Rp1.01t vs Rp625m audited
• PTPP Rp1.02t vs Rp740m
• BNGA Rp2.08t vs Rp428m
• PNBN Rp2.41t vs Rp1.41t
• PNBS Rp19.5m vs Rp53.6m
• MIDI Rp196m vs Rp140m
• AMRT Rp601m vs Rp451m
• ADHI Rp313m vs Rp464m
• BNLI -Rp6.48t vs Rp247m
• BNII Rp1.95t vs Rp1.14t
• UNVR Rp6.4t vs Rp5.8t
• WSKT Rp1.71t vs Rp1.05t
• WSBP Rp635m vs Rp334m
• WTON Rp272m vs Rp174m
• BMRI Rp13.8t vs Rp20.3t
• ELSA Rp311m vs Rp375m
• BBTN Rp2.62t vs Rp1.85t
• AGRO Rp103m vs Rp80.5m
• JSMR Rp1.77t vs Rp1.45t
• PPRO Rp365m vs Rp300m
• BBRI Rp26.19t vs Rp25.39t
• WIKA Rp940m vs Rp625m*
• EXCL Rp375m vs -Rp25.3m
• BJTM Rp1.03t vs Rp884m
• BBNI Rp11.34t vs Rp9.07t
Tanda Merah = Turun, Tanda Biru = Naik excellent.
* Unaudited
Tidaklah
baik membeli saham ketika harganya sedang turun karena Anda mengira
harganya murah. Banyak orang-orang bangkrut melakukan hal ini karena
harga saham-sahamnya turun terus menerus.
Dan
jika Anda akan menjualnya, jangan menunggu hingga semua orang sudah
habis menjualannya, juallah bila Anda merasa puas dengan mendapat
keuntungan ! Jika harga sahamnya terus naik, lupakanlah tentang saham
tsb begitu Anda sudah menjualnya.
Sebelum
Anda berinvestasi di pasar saham, Anda terlebih dahulu harus memahami
hasil yang Anda inginkan. Anda perlu memutuskan apakah Anda membeli
saham untuk "penghasilan" atau untuk "investasi", karena keduanya
mempunyai strategi-strategi yang berbeda.
Berikut kami lampirkan kumpulan gambar pola candlestick berikut istilah-istilahnya, semoga bermanfaat :
